{"id":1151,"date":"2022-04-01T13:00:29","date_gmt":"2022-04-01T18:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agri-search.com\/?p=1151"},"modified":"2022-04-01T13:00:29","modified_gmt":"2022-04-01T18:00:29","slug":"making-high-quality-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agri-search.com\/making-high-quality-decisions\/","title":{"rendered":"Making High-Quality Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Few things will improve the quality of your life more than learning how to make high-quality decisions. \u00a0Yet amazingly, no one really teaches us how to do it. \u00a0Not in grade school; not in high school. \u00a0Most college majors don\u2019t require courses in critical thinking or decision-making. Has anyone ever told you that their parents sat them down one day and said, \u201cIt\u2019s time for me to teach you how to gather information, assess that information, think critically and then make a high-quality decision<\/em>?\u201d<\/p>\n

The Internet has made things worse. \u00a0Why learn decision-making skills when Google has thousands of \u201cexperts\u201d with an answer? \u00a0All those answers then introduce the Paradox of Choice, which leaves many feeling overwhelmed and looking for somebody else to make decisions for them.<\/p>\n

A September 2021 Inc. magazine article reported that the average adult makes approximately 35,000 decisions per day. \u00a0(Do you suddenly feel tired?)\u00a0 Decisions fall on a continuum ranging from the unimportant\u00a0(do I go to lunch at 11:45 or Noon?)<\/em>\u00a0to the critically important\u00a0(do we launch this product?).\u00a0<\/em>The consequences of important decisions can change our careers, and sometimes our lives.<\/p>\n

Most people don\u2019t possess the tools to optimally process these things. Consequently, they rely on tactics like the old pro-con list, listing the positives on the left side of the page and the negatives on the right.\u00a0 It works, but that approach has drawbacks. If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.<\/p>\n

It is important to note that even people with good decision-making skills can get it wrong. History is full of bad calls made by smart people, many of whom could even be called \u201cprofessional deciders.\u201d \u00a0However, there is much we can do to increase our odds of making high-quality decisions.<\/p>\n

Those who make consistent, high-quality decisions take advantage of how the world works. They choose outcome over ego. \u00a0They accept reality\u2019s feedback and use it to change their behavior. \u00a0Poor decision-makers do the opposite. \u00a0They choose ego over outcome. \u00a0They decide based on how they think the world should<\/em>\u00a0work. \u00a0They ignore reality\u2019s feedback, then blame others and blame circumstances for the consequences of their poor decisions.<\/p>\n

Those who make consistent, high-quality decisions also use mental models. A mental model is simply a way of thinking that helps us process what goes on around us. \u00a0They are the routines our brain uses to simplify the outside world. \u00a0We all have them, and we all use them.<\/p>\n

Charlie Munger, billionaire investor and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, once summed up his approach to wisdom using mental models. \u00a0He stressed the importance of having models in your head and then filtering your experiences through that network of mental models to arrive at better decisions.\u00a0 So, what are these Core Mental Models?<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The Map is Not the Territory:\u00a0Maps aren\u2019t reality, they are a representation of reality. The territory can change. \u00a0Downpours, earthquakes, and bulldozers happen. \u00a0Another way to think of it: The Menu is Not the Meal.\u00a0 Trust, but verify.<\/li>\n
  2. Circle of Competence:\u00a0When ego drives what we undertake, we have blind spots. Know what you know, but more importantly \u2013 know what you don\u2019t know.<\/li>\n
  3. First Principles Thinking:\u00a0Separate the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. Once you get down to the essential idea or facts, you can build to produce something new. \u00a0Elon Musk explains it like this: boil things down to their fundamental truths, then reason up from there.<\/li>\n
  4. Thought Experiment: A fancy way of saying \u201cuse your imagination.\u201d Layout a problem mentally and extensively think through all the potential consequences. \u00a0When we can\u2019t find actual evidence, thought experiments force us to confront questions we can\u2019t answer easily.<\/li>\n
  5. Second-Order Thinking:\u00a0Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. That\u2019s first-order thinking. Far fewer can think farther ahead and think holistically, anticipating subsequent effects beyond the immediate.<\/li>\n
  6. Probabilistic Thinking:\u00a0This is trying to estimate, using math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome happening. Identifying the most likely outcomes is one of the best tools available to improve the quality of our decisions.<\/li>\n
  7. Inversion:\u00a0Most of us tend to think in one direction about a problem. Sometimes it helps to turn things upside down. \u00a0Instead of asking,\u00a0\u201cWhat\u2019s the fastest path to getting this product to market?\u201d,\u00a0<\/em>invert and ask,\u00a0\u201cWhat are all the obstacles that could delay us getting this product to market?\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n
  8. Occam\u2019s Razor:\u00a0Simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complex ones.<\/em> Don\u2019t begin with trying to disprove a complicated fact pattern. \u00a0Instead, begin with trying to prove a simple fact pattern.<\/li>\n
  9. Hanlon\u2019s Razor:\u00a0Don\u2019t blame malice for things that can more easily be explained by stupidity.<\/em> Bad results aren\u2019t always caused by bad actors; they are more often missed opportunities. The explanation most likely to be right is the one with the least amount of intent. \u00a0People make mistakes.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    We can\u2019t always predict the outcome of our decisions. \u00a0But if you have a solid decision-making process using mental models, you will find yourself making high-quality decisions more often.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Few things will improve the quality of your life more than learning how to make high-quality decisions. \u00a0Yet amazingly, no one really teaches us how to do it. \u00a0Not in grade school; not in high school. \u00a0Most college majors don\u2019t require courses in critical thinking or decision-making. Has anyone ever told you that their parents […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMaking High-Quality Decisions - AGRI-SEARCH Agricultural Recruiters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agri-search.com\/making-high-quality-decisions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Making High-Quality Decisions - AGRI-SEARCH Agricultural Recruiters\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Few things will improve the quality of your life more than learning how to make high-quality decisions. \u00a0Yet amazingly, no one really teaches us how to do it. \u00a0Not in grade school; not in high school. \u00a0Most college majors don\u2019t require courses in critical thinking or decision-making. 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